risk assessment tool

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mommyof1

Proud Parent
Georgia Tech has developed a tool for assessing the probability that an infected person will be present at an event, given the state, the event size, and a range of assumptions about undercounting of infections.

click "Real-Time US and State-Level Estimates" tab

Our state is doing relatively well right now, and my daughter's gym is small. If we assume that all infections are reported, there's currently a 4.1 percent chance that someone at practice is infected. If the true infection rate is 5x the reported rate, the probability that at least one of the people in the gym during practice is infected is 18.8 percent; if the true infection rate is 10x the reported rate, the probability is 34.2 percent.

Anyone else want to run their numbers and share?
 
Sure. I ran for 50 people in the gym, although our gym is huge and really, he is only in contact with his group:
Chance someone is COVID19 positive at CI (3,360): 2.9%
Chance someone is COVID19 positive at 5x CI (16,800): 13.6%
Chance someone is COVID19 positive at 10x CI (33,600): 25.4%
 
Mine says 2.1%. However, our county is large and urban. The more local towns the girls at our gym live in have lower rates than our county as a whole, and the lifestyles and jobs of the families of girls in my daughter’s group are not high-risk. So I don’t at all believe that her true level of risk is even that high.
 
CI = Current reported incidence
Chance someone is COVID19 positive at CI(5,072): 1%
Chance someone is COVID19 positive at 5x CI(25,360): 5%
Chance someone is COVID19 positive at 10x CI (50,720): 9.7%

However, I'm in the one state that still doesn't have gymnastics facilities open :)
 
CI = Current reported incidence
Chance someone is COVID19 positive at CI(5,072): 1%
Chance someone is COVID19 positive at 5x CI(25,360): 5%
Chance someone is COVID19 positive at 10x CI (50,720): 9.7%

However, I'm in the one state that still doesn't have gymnastics facilities open :)

Wow! Even with rates that low! Are you in a county that isn’t the center of infection in your state? Are they not allowing progression through phases by individual county?
 
Wow! Even with rates that low! Are you in a county that isn’t the center of infection in your state? Are they not allowing progression through phases by individual county?

Our gym is small, so I took that in to account. No way we will have 50 kids in the building at the same time. The county I live in wasn't hard hit, however, we are in the same reopening as some of the harder hit counties as many of our citizens work in those areas. So far two of our eight regions in the state have reopened gymnastics facilities at this time.
 
She provided an assessment tool. We are NOT going to continue this discussion from the other locked thread. I’m deleting the posts not directly related to the topic at hand. If you want to discuss this privately start a private conversation.
 
Texas 3/14/27%.

But given that Texas is larger than many countries, a tool that lumps us all together is pretty useless. Even dividing into rural TX/ urban TX would give a much better picture. The risk is my city is statistically far higher than presented there.
 
Texas 3/14/27%.

But given that Texas is larger than many countries, a tool that lumps us all together is pretty useless. Even dividing into rural TX/ urban TX would give a much better picture. The risk is my city is statistically far higher than presented there.

There is a spot where you can look by county. BUt I agree. It varies so much even in our county.
 
CI = Current reported incidence
Chance someone is COVID19 positive at CI(5,072): 1%
Chance someone is COVID19 positive at 5x CI(25,360): 5%
Chance someone is COVID19 positive at 10x CI (50,720): 9.7%

However, I'm in the one state that still doesn't have gymnastics facilities open :)

Must be a fellow Michigander. :(
 
For the state of Ohio
CI = Current reported incidence
Chance someone is COVID19 positive at CI (12,777): 5.3%
Chance someone is COVID19 positive at 5x CI (63,885): 24%
Chance someone is COVID19 positive at 10x CI (127,770): 42.3%
=====================================================
But, Ohio has gone to a "Level" system by county per our governor. My county is a Level 1. However, our most of our largest counties are at Level 3 ... and one county is close to Level 4 (triggered 5 indicators and was close on a 6th indicator).
Levels and Indicators.jpg
 
For my state (VA), with a 50 person event, it is 4%/19%/35%. However, for my county, it is 27%. (It seems like when you run the County tool it assumes the 10x). Cool tool - thanks!
 
She provided an assessment tool. We are NOT going to continue this discussion from the other locked thread. I’m deleting the posts not directly related to the topic at hand. If you want to discuss this privately start a private conversation.
Thank you.
 
I’m assuming the same can be said for any and all viruses circulating in the population, as well as bacteria like strep. Living life is full of the risk of getting sick or injured, thats part of living. Anytime people are in contact with other people, there is the risk of catching some kind of disease from other people.
 
I’m assuming the same can be said for any and all viruses circulating in the population, as well as bacteria like strep. Living life is full of the risk of getting sick or injured, thats part of living. Anytime people are in contact with other people, there is the risk of catching some kind of disease from other people.

For 50 people in the gym in GA, here is the risk:

Chance someone is COVID19 positive at CI (12,777): 13.6%
Chance someone is COVID19 positive at 5x CI (63,885): 52.2%
Chance someone is COVID19 positive at 10x CI (127,770): 77.4%

I find the state-level estimates more useful than the county-level estimates, as gyms may draw kids from multiple counties with different reported infection rates.
 
I find the state-level estimates more useful than the county-level estimates, as gyms may draw kids from multiple counties with different reported infection rates.


Here, because the county Houston is in is so giant, our gym only draws from one other neighboring county, but the county breakdown is still going to be a lot more accurate than the state one. How do you drill down to county? I still can't find it.
 
Here, because the county Houston is in is so giant, our gym only draws from one other neighboring county, but the county breakdown is still going to be a lot more accurate than the state one. How do you drill down to county? I still can't find it.

Instead of clicking the "Real Time US and State Estimates" tab, zoom in to your county on the map on the main page. The site seems to be having some traffic issues now, though, and that functionality appears to be disabled.
 
Researchers get this reaction all the time: I don't like the results, or they don't fit with my existing beliefs that are not grounded in empirical evidence, so they must be wrong.

If a result doesn't pass the sniff test, you need to look at the calculations and the embedded assumptions to evaluate the accuracy of the results. The "Tutorial" and "Data Source" tabs explain the calculations and the sources of the underlying data. These calculations are very straightforward and transparent and could be easily replicated by a layperson, unlike the more complicated forecasting models.
To expand on this and questions for clarification?

Does this take into account mitigation?

Specifically the following;

Ventilation?
Barriers?
Indoor vs Outdoor gathering/activity?
Type of activity?
Masks vs not?
Sanitizing?
 
Mod note - I have deleted two posts for "off topic discussion".

I almost removed another one, please keep this civil, please keep this about the risk assessment tool. If we cannot do this then yet another thread will be locked.
 

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