MAG Speculation

[skschlag]

OK. With one day of Nationals down....let's start the fun Who is on your Olympic team?

I think Sam, Donnell, and Jake are in. Chris is consistent, but I think if he goes, he will be an alternate...again. Just no stand out events, but can fill in on anything. I would love to see him NOT an alternate though.

others: John O, Paul, Akash, Donathan (for pommel only, so long shot!), Alex N?

What are your thoughts? Let's have some fun!

 

[profmom]

I am glad I don't have to make the decision! Too hard!

I agree about Sam, Donnell, and Jake. I think John O makes it if he hits his next three PH PB and HB routines and not if not. Sean Melton Yul Moldauer and akash Modi are making it interesting. I want Paul R to make it but it's uphill . . .

 

[skschlag]

I agree about John...that fall last night was so hard to watch

 

[profmom]

Feel bad for Danell too.

 

[wandrewsjr]

Agree Sam, Donnell, Jake and....any 2 guys capable of scoring higher than 13 on pommel consistently!? Modi and Bailey? Would they bring a guy just to do pommel?

 

[ZJsMom]

Agree Sam, Donnell, Jake and....any 2 guys capable of scoring higher than 13 on pommel consistently!? Modi and Bailey? Would they bring a guy just to do pommel?

I don't think you can afford a one eventer. With this core team, you also need HB slots filled. The hard thing is that Whittenburg and Dalton seem to have earned their spots, but their strengths are too similar.

The PH/ HB guys would'a should'a could'a been Orozco and Leyva, but neither of them are where they needed to be. If only the US could skip pommels, it would be easy to put together a strong team.

Honestly, I don't see a team finish higher than 5th this year.

 

[skschlag]

I am glad we still have 3 looks at the guys. I mean, yesterday was one...but we have today and the trials. Alex or Yul,Marvin or paul may come out of the pack...or someone we aren't even considering....

I love the guessing. I am never right

 

[GymMom4]

I would guess maybe Chris or Paul have a shot this time around. They both had some great finishes today.

 

[wandrewsjr]

Well, Chris certainly improved his chances with his performance today. And at least he can put up a reliable 14 on ph. So how about Sam, Donnell, Jake, Chris and then either Modi or Kimble. And then either Kimble or Modi would make a good alternate, reasonably strong on all events.

 

[profmom]

Yeah, that was quite a statement by Brooks!

 

[Sasha]

If I'm picking the team, I have to go with, in this order...

The best 3 consistent AA guys who also have a shot at event finals...

1.Donnell (event shot on vault, rings, pbars....) Pommels, high bar not great.
2.Sam (event shot at.. well, anything possibly - the purest AAer..) Pommels and high bar good!
3.Jake (event shot at floor, vault..maybe pbars) Pommels not great, high bar decent.

So we need another consistent pommels person, so next up, depending on who hits at Trials..
4.either Akash or Alex N - Akash if we want a decent AA guy with consistency on 3 strong events: pommels, pbar, highbar; Alex if we want pommels + decent Rings guy

And then another supporting AA who could perhaps surprise everyone with a great High Bar performance to round it out...
5.either Ruggeri or Brooks, whoever hits at Trials and shows consistency.

How'd I do selection committee??



Alternate thoughts...
I love John O with a gymnastics passion, and if I picked on heart and personality, he'd be my #1 core team choice. But unless he pulls something amazing at Trials, I'm worried he just didn't have enough building time to get where he needs to be. When he hits, though, he is at the top of my faves to watch. Love to see John as an alternate just so he can go and be a part of things. Marvin feels like a solid viable alternate - not quite enough polish for me yet for the core team, though. CJ, Sean, and Yul are rising stars, also possible alternate choices.

 

[profmom]

This is really fun. You can choose your own Olympic team based on scores at nationals. Though the picture at the top of the blog . . . ouch! https://balancebeamsituation.com/2016/06/07/choose-your-own-us-mens-olympic-team-adventure/

 

[karenity]

Thanks for the link profmom, it has been updated for first day of trials. I'm playing with it now.

 

[skschlag]

Alright..so what is the highest team score you have gotten? Let's play a game!! LOL!

 

[ZJsMom]

This is fun. I get 278.275 with Mikulak, Brooks, Dalton, Naddour, and Leyva.

 

[wandrewsjr]

I got 278.65 with Mikulak, Brooks, Whittenburg, Naddour and Orozco

Got 278.475 with Mikulak, Brooks, Whittenburg, Naddour and Dalton

Wouldn't have thought it going into this weekend, but Orozco's pommell and high bar give him a real shot at making the team

 

[wandrewsjr]

And is it looking more and more to me like Dalton's "strengths" may not be strong enough to put him on the team? A 15.5/15.6 on vault and floor isn't that valuable when you've got a long line of guys that can put up a consistent 15.1/15.2. A consistent 15 on high bar and pommell, though, this team badly needs that.

 

[ZJsMom]

I got 278.65 with Mikulak, Brooks, Whittenburg, Naddour and Orozco

Got 278.475 with Mikulak, Brooks, Whittenburg, Naddour and Dalton

Wouldn't have thought it going into this weekend, but Orozco's pommell and high bar give him a real shot at making the team

Interesting. When you take your first team, they score the highest based on highest scores, but if you put Dalton in for Whittenburg, the total based on average score goes up. 273.524 vs. 273.05. Some of the high scores are such outliers they probably don't mean much. For instance, Whittenburg is never going to score 15 on high bar internationally. I guess that's not going into the team score. Plenty of other inflated scores though.

 

[wandrewsjr]

Interesting. When you take your first team, they score the highest based on highest scores, but if you put Dalton in for Whittenburg, the total based on average score goes up. 273.524 vs. 273.05. Some of the high scores are such outliers they probably don't mean much. For instance, Whittenburg is never going to score 15 on high bar internationally. I guess that's not going into the team score. Plenty of other inflated scores though.

Yes, but Whittenburgs 15 isn't even counted in the team total with high scores - Mikulak's 15.7, Orozco's 15.55 and Brooks 15.9 would be the ones to go in team final.

Man, this is going to be a tough puzzle to put together. A couple of REALLY strong guys are gong to be left off.

 

[karenity]

Best combos I could find using both methods on the worksheet. So depends if you go for the high score, the consistency or a combination of the two. Guess second day will finalize the team.

High scores:
Mikulak, Naddour, Ruggeri, Whittenburg, Orozco (279.03)
Mikulak, Naddour, Ruggeri, Whittenburg, Brooks (278.92)
Mikulak, Naddour, Ruggeri, Whittenbug, Modi (278.83) (273.0 for average)
Mikulak, Naddour, Ruggeri, Brooks. Kimble, (278.7)
Mikulak, Naddour, Brooks, Dalton, Orozco (278.7)

Using averages:
Mikulak, Naddour, Brooks, Dalton, Orozco (273.5)
Mikulak, Naddour, Brooks, Dalton, Modi (273.4) note, 278.4 for highest score
Mikulak, Naddour, Ruggeri, Whittenburg, Brooks (273.31)
Mikulak, Naddour, Ruggeri, Whittenburg, Orozco (273.2)
Mikulak, Naddour, Ruggeri, Kimble, Brooks (273.18)

I couldn't find a combination with out Naddour that was even close to as high. Nor could I find a combo with Levya that had high team scores, sigh.

For the best combos all have Mikulak and Naddour that I could find. The other three spots are so close.

Really very small differences, 0.3 total team score for each of these combos. I don't envy those that need to make this decision, will be difficult choice. I don't know what other factors play in. Maybe health of the athletes, team leadership/motivation, best AA or best total team scores, etc.