WAG How many L7s get to L9?

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I have seen many girls at my gym who started gymnastics from scratch get to about L7 in like maybe 3 years or so, which I think is pretty amazing! Of course, they need to have a special spirit and love for the sport, they must be willing to work VERY hard and they must have gymnastics in their blood. However, this is not rarely seen.
And also, of course, there are differences between the athletes; some girls have super nice form, others are a little sloppier and compete only the bare minimun on bars. But still, some make it to pretty good L7 gymnasts in 3 years.

I know it is like this with my team, we are all past puberty and no one dreams of anything, we just do it for fun. But still, we work hard and lurk around between L7 and L8 skills. Some of us are working single higher level skills on different events, but nothing serious. I always thought this was different with younger girls: They have their routines, so all they basically would need to do is upgrade their main tumbling skills. So you could think it would still go on like it started – doing at least one level a year.

But I noticed that it is not! Some might get to L8, although the pirouette on bars as well as the connected front tumbling pass and sometimes vault seem to really bother some gymnasts. But it is doable if they were good L7s. However, going to L9 seems almost impossible just after one year of L8!

Although the athletes have all the important basics, somehow the skills seem so hard to learn and be able to do consistently, that you see very little L9 gymnasts that are good all around, like on every event. Also, the skills seem to get scarier and more dangerous. Flight skills on bars and doubleback dismounts, twisting and doublebacks on floor, twisting vaults, series on beam with flight.... urrrghhh.

Is this just my impression or is this the common case?
Is there a statistic that says how many L7s get to L9?
 
@PressHandstands this sounds like a great project for a science fair project! :) I don't know if there are statistics specifically like you've asked for, but it would be cool to know. My guess is that fewer than 20% go from L7 to L9, and most of those who do, do so with more than one year at L8. You're right about the huge jump from L8 to L9....didn't USAG address that somewhat with the adjustments to levels 2 years ago? I think there are now some options for more difficulty at L8, but I'm not positive. Also, some gyms have the resources to train the higher levels (9-10) and some don't. When you talk about "younger girls", do you mean those who started gym earlier? I'm learning that it is nearly impossible to predict who will move up a steady 1 level per year and do well. Fear sets in, puberty changes bodies, and interest wanes. It's not unusual for a state champ at any level to "retire" after a great season!
 
I had once read that it was a 80 percent drop out rate from compulsory to level 8. Not sure about 7 to 9, too many variables.
 
Thank you both for your great answers!

@JoyAvenueMom
No, with "younger" girls I mean those who reach L7 at around age 10. Because I am already 17 and still L7. I do work some higher Level skills and if I wanted to I could compete L8. But L9? No way! Like never ever.

My little cousin is a L7 also, it is her first season. She is 11. All of her teammates are good gymnasts. But honestly, I do not see any of them going to L9 any time soon. If you want to go to L9, you need to be so good all around. Like at all events you need to have clean routines and it is just so much. I don't even know how these girls are doing that!

@coachp
Wow, that is a huge number! Thanks for the input
 
Thank you both for your great answers!

@JoyAvenueMom
No, with "younger" girls I mean those who reach L7 at around age 10. Because I am already 17 and still L7. I do work some higher Level skills and if I wanted to I could compete L8. But L9? No way! Like never ever.

My little cousin is a L7 also, it is her first season. She is 11. All of her teammates are good gymnasts. But honestly, I do not see any of them going to L9 any time soon. If you want to go to L9, you need to be so good all around. Like at all events you need to have clean routines and it is just so much. I don't even know how these girls are doing that!

@coachp
Wow, that is a huge number! Thanks for the input
==
Didn't seem real accurate, but I guess if you look at all the level 3's and then calculate how many 8's per state that would be a more accurate number? But that doesn't take into account the 8's who are repeating etc... I am sure USAG has the skinny on these statistics.
 
You can roughly approximate this using published stats (https://usagym.org/pages/home/publications/usagymnastics/2009/1/32_stats.pdf). Level 9 is 42% the size of level 7. Assuming a constantly "in flow" of new gymnasts, you could assume that around 42% of level 7s will make it to level 9. It's not entirely accurate, but it's probably close.
That percentage (42%) feels about right based on my experience. I didn't really appreciate how big the jump was from L8 to L9 until this year as we've muddled through it (after 1 year at L8). I have seen many, many girls struggle at L8 and either quit at that level or repeat for a number of years. It's really quite an accomplishment to make it to level 8.
 
I looked this up real quick, our state had 881 level 3's last year, and 253 level 9's. But it's not really an accurate number because many of those 9's would be from multiple generations of level 3's. So lets say those nines all came out of 3 generations, that's 84 kids out of an average of 800.
 
This really is gym-dependent. The majority of gyms are not equipped to coach past level 7. They may attempt it, and get their girls to level 8 , but they typically are nut string, which makes it nearly impossible to to move to 9 safely. In these gyms, the drop out rate will be as high as 80 or 90%.

However, if you are in a gym with very experienced coaches, coaching Elites and future college athletes, those stats are going to be very different. Especially for those gyms who hand pick their teams with only the best, strongest, etc girls. Drop out could be as low as 20%
 
I don't think a gym has to coach Elites to get girls to 9 and 10. In fact I would say there are many programs out there with successful 9s and 10s that have no interest and/or aspirations of coaching "elites". My dd is at such a gym and there are many in our region. Dd's gym has a very large and successful level 9 and level 10 team. No elites- ever.
 
I don't think a gym has to coach Elites to get girls to 9 and 10. In fact I would say there are many programs out there with successful 9s and 10s that have no interest and/or aspirations of coaching "elites". My dd is at such a gym and there are many in our region. Dd's gym has a very large and successful level 9 and level 10 team. No elites- ever.
I was not implying that one needed to be in a gym with elite coaches in order to get to level 9/10. I was supplying opposite ends of the spectrum - gyms who don't have the coach expertise will have a much lower percentage making it to L9+ vs gyms with elite level coaches will have a much higher percentage at the higher levels. Of course, there are gyms in between these two ends of the spectrum that do just fine in level 9/10 and their percentage of girls making it would be somewhere in between.
 
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Our gym has about 15 Level 3, maybe half a dozen L7s, one Level 9, I think one or two Level 8. They have had 10/Elite but not currently
 
My dd's team had 6 Level 8 gymnasts when she competed 8. At season end 3 quit the sport, 2 repeated and my dd was the only one to move up to 9.
 
My gym has maybe 10-12 level 3's, then we have 5 level 6's, 4 level 7's, 3 level 8's, and me 1 level 9, a few years ago we had a lot of optional gymnast about 6-7 quit mostly because they started highschool
 
I have seen many girls at my gym who started gymnastics from scratch get to about L7 in like maybe 3 years or so, which I think is pretty amazing! Of course, they need to have a special spirit and love for the sport, they must be willing to work VERY hard and they must have gymnastics in their blood. However, this is not rarely seen.
And also, of course, there are differences between the athletes; some girls have super nice form, others are a little sloppier and compete only the bare minimun on bars. But still, some make it to pretty good L7 gymnasts in 3 years.

I know it is like this with my team, we are all past puberty and no one dreams of anything, we just do it for fun. But still, we work hard and lurk around between L7 and L8 skills. Some of us are working single higher level skills on different events, but nothing serious. I always thought this was different with younger girls: They have their routines, so all they basically would need to do is upgrade their main tumbling skills. So you could think it would still go on like it started – doing at least one level a year.

But I noticed that it is not! Some might get to L8, although the pirouette on bars as well as the connected front tumbling pass and sometimes vault seem to really bother some gymnasts. But it is doable if they were good L7s. However, going to L9 seems almost impossible just after one year of L8!

Although the athletes have all the important basics, somehow the skills seem so hard to learn and be able to do consistently, that you see very little L9 gymnasts that are good all around, like on every event. Also, the skills seem to get scarier and more dangerous. Flight skills on bars and doubleback dismounts, twisting and doublebacks on floor, twisting vaults, series on beam with flight.... urrrghhh.

Is this just my impression or is this the common case?
Is there a statistic that says how many L7s get to L9?

not many...
 
Depends so much on the gym - and obviously the region (although ratios may be same...). We had 2 seesions of L7 at state, 2 sessions of L8 (smaller) and ONE session of 9-10s last year - and it was half the size - so the 1/3-1/4 stands. Most level 10s come from 1 gym in the major metropolitan area, with a smattering in the rest of the state.

Getting from 7-8 depends upon the gym here - lots of girls compete 8 with very basic skills - DD was set to be one by her old coach and would have been successful score-wise. New gym is trying to set them up to be able to progress past 8 to 9/10 and has higher expectations (like many I hear of here). Makes the jump much bigger....first gym in our area to attempt to coach like this - I don't know how it will work for the kids not "brought up" this way, but my hope is it will lead to less quick move ups and more "staying power' in the teen years....
 
Last year our gym had 14 level 7s. This year we have 4 level 7s. 7 move on to l8 and 3 quit. Last year we had 2 Level 8 but this year there are 5 who are competing and 2 who are injured.
 

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